Blog

Commentary and analysis on trade policy, Brexit, and the war economy.

From pace-setter to laggard: Brexit and the British car industry

brexit
firms
car-industry
tca

In the years before the referendum, Britain’s car industry grew roughly eight times faster than Germany’s. Uncertainty slowed it, the Trade and Cooperation Agreement broke it away, and the next round of European trade rules may decide whether it has a future at all.

Oct 5, 2026

Is Russia’s economy bigger than Britain’s? Nominal GDP, PPP and the economics of isolation

ukraine
russia-economy
gdp
ppp

Tucker Carlson says Russia’s economy is larger than Britain’s. At PPP it is; at market exchange rates it is about two-thirds the size. Why the gap exists, why isolation widens it, and what the Soviet Union teaches about economies that look big on paper.

Oct 3, 2026

Fifty Percent: How Russia’s Cost-of-Living Crisis Became a Landslide

ukraine
russia-economy
inflation

Russian consumer prices are up 50% since 2022, the worst inflation among major economies, yet the Kremlin just won its biggest parliamentary majority ever. A look at why the bill never reaches the ballot box.

Sep 22, 2026
 

After SPS: the EU trade barrier that needs fixing next

brexit
firms

Five years of UK-EU trade data show a 53.8% decline in export product varieties and a 16.5% fall in export values — deeply integrated sectors survived Brexit, but the logic of maintaining them is eroding.

Sep 14, 2026
 

Brussels Races the Clock: Europe’s Last-Minute Bid to Lock In a US Trade Deal

trade-wars

The EU is racing to lock in a ‘rules and stability’ pact with the US by July, trading regulatory alignment for insulation against future tariff shocks.

May 6, 2026
 

Trump’s 25% Tariff Shock on EU Cars: Trade Deal or Trade War?

trade-wars

Trump raised US tariffs on EU-built cars from 15% to 25% while exempting European brands’ American-made vehicles, adding roughly $5,000 to a $50,000 imported car.

May 2, 2026
 

The Excavator at the End of the Universe

other

Why AI likely won’t shrink work — it will raise the bar for what counts as enough — unless we spend the gains pushing the frontier outward rather than multiplying administrative busywork.

May 1, 2026
 

What steel tariffs reveal about the cost of going it alone

brexit
trade-wars
firms

New modelling with Jun Du finds UK steel tariffs cut imports 20% and raised consumer prices 27%, hitting downstream steel-users far harder than primary steelmakers — coordinating with the EU would pay off.

Apr 28, 2026
 

NATO’s Hidden Dividend and the Avoidable Cost of U.S. Withdrawal

trade-wars
nato

NATO membership raises bilateral trade by 12–27%; a U.S. exit would cut American exports by about 16% (roughly $240 billion a year) and GDP by around 4%.

Apr 22, 2026
 

Tariffs as Taxes at Home: How Trump-Era Trade Wars Still Shape Trade in 2026

trade-wars

Evidence shows Trump-era tariffs behaved like domestic taxes rather than foreign penalties — mostly passed through to US consumers, with little reshoring to show for it.

Apr 9, 2026
 

From Steel to Pills: Trump’s Tariff Weapon Gets a Big Upgrade

trade-wars

Section 232 national-security tariffs, once limited to steel and aluminium, now reach copper and patented pharmaceuticals — turning ‘national security’ into a catch-all trade rationale.

Apr 7, 2026
 

Brussels Says “Yes, But…” to Washington

trade-wars

The European Parliament conditionally approved a limited EU-US trade package that trades modest tariff cuts for firm safeguards on regulatory autonomy.

Mar 27, 2026
 

The £135 Question: Is Britain About to Tax Your Online Shopping Cart?

trade-wars
other

The UK plans to scrap its £135 low-value import relief by 2029, following the EU and US in closing the cheap-parcel loophole — with a real hit to consumer prices.

Mar 24, 2026
 

Steel Shield, Budget Blowout

trade-wars
firms

The UK’s plan to double steel tariffs to protect domestic producers threatens to raise construction costs and deepen HS2’s budget crisis.

Mar 23, 2026
 

Beyond Tinkering: Is a “Swiss-Style” Reset Next for UK–EU Trade?

brexit

Piecemeal fixes haven’t reversed the post-Brexit decline in UK-EU trade — a comprehensive ‘Swiss-style’ regulatory framework might.

Mar 21, 2026
 

After the Court slapped down Trump’s tariffs, USTR is trying to build a sturdier tariff machine

trade-wars

The Trump administration is using Section 301 ‘overcapacity’ investigations against 16 trading partners to build a legally sturdier basis for tariffs after courts blocked its earlier approach.

Mar 12, 2026
 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 414

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

Being defeated in the Supreme Court, Trump is now trying to find ways to keep his tariffs in place. His trade representative, Jamieson Greer initiated a section 301 investigation, which is available at link.

Mar 11, 2026

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 395

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

The US Supreme Court strikes down Trump tariffs.

Feb 20, 2026
 

Europe Flirts with a “Buy European” Era

trade-wars

As its global manufacturing share slides and China and the US both subsidise heavily, the EU is turning to ‘Buy European’ procurement rules — security-framed protectionism with real risks of retaliation.

Feb 13, 2026

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 374

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

The US has announced it will decertify Bombardier aircraft and threatens 50% tariffs on all Canadian planes—unless Canada certifies Gulfstream jets “immediately.” This is a notable shift in trade war tactics.

Jan 30, 2026

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 371

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

Over the last several months, there were no significant changes in the trade policy diary, until post -New Year period, when Trump announced a new wave of tariff threats asking for political consessions from several countries.

Jan 27, 2026
 

Europe has five options for responding to Trump’s Greenland threats. None of them look good

other
trade-wars

Trump’s tariff threats against eight European nations over Greenland aren’t really about trade — they’re about territory, and Europe’s five available responses all carry real costs.

Jan 20, 2026
 

The UK Trade Report for September 2025

brexit

A Douglas Adams-inspired tour of UK trade in September 2025: a precious-metals boom, resilient aerospace and defence exports, a struggling car industry, and no seat at the AI hardware table.

Nov 21, 2025
 

On the Curious Case of Pasta, Shrimps, and the Unraveling of the Liberal Trade Order

trade-wars

From pasta tariffs to seafood bans, food trade is becoming a favoured tool for political signalling — a symptom of the world fragmenting back into 1930s-style trading blocs.

Nov 19, 2025
 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 298

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

The White House announced four new “frameworks for Agreements on Reciprocal Trade” with El Salvador, Argentina, Guatemala, and Ecuador. Although framed as “historic trade deals,” these are not full free trade agreements.

Nov 14, 2025
 

The Great Pasta War: how America turned spaghetti into a trade weapon

trade-wars

Data show Italian pasta sells in the US at a 25-30% premium over European prices, undercutting the dumping claims behind Washington’s 91% tariff — this is trade policy as political theatre.

Nov 11, 2025
 

Taiwan’s Tech Triumph: AI Demand Propels Exports to New Heights

trade-wars
firms

Taiwan’s exports surged nearly 50% year-on-year on AI-driven chip demand, underscoring its pivotal role in the global tech supply chain while the EU and UK fall behind.

Nov 10, 2025
 

Supreme Court Showdown: Can a President Unilaterally Shape Trade Policy?

trade-wars

The Supreme Court weighs whether a president can impose tariffs unilaterally under emergency powers law — a ruling that could redraw the line between executive and Congressional control of trade.

Nov 5, 2025
 

Trade Truce 2.0: US–China Framework Eases Fears, Lifts Oil and Stocks

trade-wars

A tentative US-China framework from the Kuala Lumpur talks trades a pause on rare-earth export curbs for commitments on soybeans and fentanyl precursors — but the truce is fragile.

Oct 27, 2025
 

Europe’s Rare Earth Quest

trade-wars
firms

Europe’s heavy reliance on Chinese rare earths leaves its automotive and renewables industries exposed — and millions of jobs at risk — unless it diversifies fast.

Oct 17, 2025
 

China Stands Firm: A New Chapter in the US Trade War

trade-wars

Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on $438 billion of Chinese imports and Beijing’s vow to ‘fight to the end’ push the US-China trade war into a new, more dangerous phase.

Oct 15, 2025
 

Chips, Curbs & Tariffs

trade-wars
firms

China’s tightened rare-earth export controls and Washington’s retaliatory tariffs are exposing how exposed chipmakers and defence supply chains are to a single supplier.

Oct 13, 2025
 

Trade wars are culture wars

trade-wars

A 40% US tariff on Brazil cut its exports to America by nearly 19% in a month, wiping out mining shipments and hitting agriculture and steel hardest.

Oct 7, 2025
 

Tariff Turbulence: How Trump’s Threats Are Rocking the UK Trade Deal

brexit
trade-wars

Tariff threats are destabilising UK-US trade even after their deal, hitting UK autos and pharma exports and pushing Britain to look beyond the US for trade partners.

Oct 3, 2025
 

Trump’s Timber Tariffs: A Move that will Backfire Down the Supply Chains

trade-wars

New tariffs on softwood lumber and wood products aimed at Canada are likely to raise US lumber prices 15-20% and worsen housing affordability rather than help domestic producers.

Oct 1, 2025
 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 250

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

The tariff on wood and furniture has been announced today, with the executive order published at the White House website.

Sep 30, 2025
 

Malaysia and the US: A Trade Deal on the Horizon Before Trump’s ASEAN Visit

trade-wars

Malaysia and the US race to close a tariff deal on palm oil and electronics ahead of Trump’s Kuala Lumpur visit — a possible template for wider Southeast Asian trade deals.

Sep 25, 2025

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 214

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

After Lutnick was challenged to present any evidence of the new “trade deals” with countries like Vietnam, Korea,Japan, and EU White House has finally published a joint statement on US - EU Framework on and Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced Trade.

Aug 21, 2025
 

Trade policy Trump 2.0 and US trade

trade-wars

Tariff uncertainty widened, rather than narrowed, the US trade deficit in early 2025, as stockpiling of gold, semiconductors, and pharmaceutical inputs inflated imports.

Aug 8, 2025
 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 199

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

While most countries digest new tariffs, imposed on them by Trump, there are news obout new tariffs upcoming.

Aug 6, 2025

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 194

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

Finally, just several hours before the deadline on August 1, the White House has published new executive order, modifying the Executive Order 14257 of April 2, 2025, which set country-specific rates for imports to US, clearly violating WTO MFN rules and also…

Aug 1, 2025

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 193

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

Trump announced a “trade deal” Korea with US, which set US tariffs for Korean imports at 15%. As with other deals, Korea had to declare some magik numbers - several hundred billion USD here and there of investment in US.

Jul 31, 2025
 

US tariff weaponization

trade-wars

Tariffs are being used for more than trade: as leverage for foreign investment pledges, and as a geopolitical lever tying trading partners’ Russia ties to their tariff rates.

Jul 31, 2025
 

Tramp 2.0 Trade war

trade-wars

The US-EU deal struck in July 2025 sets 15% tariffs on European exporters in exchange for large EU commitments to buy US energy and defence equipment and invest in the US.

Jul 29, 2025
 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 191

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

Reaction of businesses in the both parts of the Atlantics to the EU-US trade agreement was underwhelming - very weak positive in the US and quite strong negative in the EU stock market movement, critisizm of the deal in Germany and Franz, Sholz said it is…

Jul 29, 2025

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 189

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

Trump travelled to Scotland to play golf in his 2 resorts, Trump Turnberry and Trump Aberdeen. He also met with Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, to discuss the ongoing trade tensions between the US and the EU.

Jul 27, 2025
 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 176

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

Trump finally threatened Russia and all countries that support Russia in the war against Ukraine with tariffs.

Jul 14, 2025
 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 175

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

Over the last month and a half, there were not many issues in the trade policy diary, until the last week, when the 90-day moratorium on reciprocal tariffs expired.

Jul 13, 2025
 

UK-US deal? Not so fast!

brexit
trade-wars

The UK is squeezed from both sides: Trump tariffs are hitting US-bound exports even after the Economic Prosperity Deal, while Brexit-era TCA friction keeps taxing trade with the EU.

Jun 12, 2025
 

Trump Trade War Diary — June 4, 2025

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary
  • UK-origin metal remains at 25 % under the provisional U-S/UK “Atlantic Metals Accord” until 9 July 2025; no other country has an arrangement.
Jun 4, 2025

Trump Trade War Diary — June 2, 2025

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

“The bad news is that China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US. So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!” Trump wrote. Later in the Oval Office, he hinted he planned to speak with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

Jun 2, 2025

Trump Trade War Diary — May 31, 2025

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary
  • Tariff Increase: 50% on imported steel and aluminum (up from 25%). - Effective Date: June 4, 2025. - Platform: Announced via Truth Social. - Rationale: Protect U.S.
May 31, 2025
 

Trump Trade War Diary — May 29, 2025

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

In an unexpected turn of events, the US Court of Int’l Trade declares Trump Liberation Day tariffs illegal.

May 29, 2025

Trump Trade War Diary — May 25, 2025

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

Urusula van der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, and DJ Trump, the President of the United States, had a phone call on May 25, 2025, to discuss the recent escalation of tariffs between the US and the EU.

May 25, 2025

Trump Trade War Diary — May 22, 2025

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

Trump suddenly announces escalation of tariffs against EU to 50% on all imports starting June 1, 2025. Not only it is a surprise, but it is also a significant increase from the previous 10% tariffs.

May 22, 2025

Trump Trade War Diary — May 12, 2025

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

The US and China have agreed to a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, with the exception of China.

May 12, 2025
 

Trump Trade War Diary — May 8, 2025

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

US and UK announced the first trade deal under the new Reciprocal Tariff Policy.

May 8, 2025
 

Trump Trade War Diary — Days 101–112

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

After active trade policy actions in the first half of April, the second half of the month was relatively quiet. The most significant event was the announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most countries, which was not extended to China.

May 1, 2025
 

Trump Trade War Diary — April 29, 2025

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

The April 29, 2025 proclamation titled “Amendments to Adjusting Imports of Automobiles and Automobile Parts Into the United States” introduces several modifications to the earlier March 26, 2025 proclamation (Proclamation 10908), which imposed a 25% tariff on…

Apr 29, 2025
 

Trump Trade War Diary — April 17, 2025

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

The White House launched Restoring America’s maritime dominance initiative with a publication at the White House website. The initiative aims at strenghening the US commercial shipbuilding capacity and maritime workforce.

Apr 17, 2025
 

Impact assessment of Trump tariffs and China retaliation

trade-wars

Modelling the long-run hit from Trump-era tariffs and Chinese retaliation: both economies lose roughly 1.5% of GDP per capita, but the US gets inflation and China gets deflation.

Apr 11, 2025
 

Trump Trade War Diary — Days 81–100

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

Recent developments in the trade relationship between the United States and China concerning tariffs within the last 10 days have been marked by continued tension, particularly with the US maintaining and escalating tariff pressure on China while adopting a…

Apr 11, 2025

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 80

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

After bond market showed sell-off of US bonds and interest rates spiked, after China showed no sign of surrender, and after EU agreed the first wave of retaliatory tariffs, D. Trump threw a white flag and cancelled his “reciprocal” tariffs.

Apr 10, 2025
 

US trade war retreat: The art of the deal or utter incompetence?

trade-wars

A 104% tariff on China wiped $6.2 trillion off the S&P 500 in a day — then Trump partially retreated, leaving the US with its highest average tariff rate in 60 years.

Apr 10, 2025
 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 79

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff plan has officially gone into effect, marking a significant shift in global trade policy.

Apr 9, 2025
 

US trade deficit and Trump uncertainty

trade-wars

Tariffs can’t fix the US trade deficit because they ignore the saving-investment identity behind it — and early 2025 data already shows the policy backfiring.

Apr 7, 2025

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 74

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

Taking a short pause, China announced a reciprocal 34% tariff on all US imports, effective April 10. The move is a direct response to Trump’s recent tariff hike and is expected to escalate trade tensions further.

Apr 4, 2025
 

Tariff Liberation Day

trade-wars

Trump’s new ‘reciprocal tariff’ executive order marks the collapse of the post-WWII trade order, replacing product-level tariffs with blunt, chaos-inducing country-level rates.

Apr 2, 2025
 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 72

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

Trump announces his “reciprocal tariffs” on all countries, which will go in two stages. Starting from tomorrow, there is a base 10% tariff on all imports from all countries, but there is a list of countries that will get higher tariffs.

Apr 2, 2025
 

Trump Trade War 2.0

trade-wars

Steel and aluminium tariffs trigger a two-phase EU retaliation package, then a threatened 200% tariff on French wine catches even Trump’s own Treasury Secretary off-guard.

Mar 13, 2025

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 52

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

Furious with the EU response, Trump tweeted that he will impose 200% tariffs on French wine and other alcohol from EU. The number iteslf raised several eyebrows, as it is not clear how he came up with it.

Mar 13, 2025

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 51

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

Trump’s 25% tariffs on Steel and Aluminium against all trading partners came into effect.

Mar 12, 2025
 

Trump 2.0 Trade policy diary

trade-wars

Ontario surcharges US electricity exports; Trump retaliates with more steel and aluminium tariffs on Canada, testing the theory that trade barriers breed conflict.

Mar 11, 2025

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 50

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

Ontario introduced 25% surcharge on electricity it exports to US. This act was the retaliatory measure against US tariffs on Canada. In 2024, US imported electricity worth 2.3 bln USD.

Mar 11, 2025
 

Trump 2.0 tariffs. Part III

trade-wars

A chaotic four days: tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico trigger swift retaliation, then a stock-market slide forces a partial climbdown within days.

Mar 7, 2025
 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 46

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

Duties imposed to address the flow of illicit drugs across our borders are now: - 25% tariffs on goods that do not satisfy U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) rules of origin.

Mar 7, 2025
 

Trump tariffs 2.0 Part II

trade-wars

Two weeks of tariff whiplash: North American duties imposed then rolled back, followed by new steel, aluminium, and reciprocal-tariff measures.

Mar 6, 2025

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 45

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

Scared by the stock market reaction to the tariffs, Trump is backpedalling sending his economic policy guy, Howard Lutnick to calm the markets down.

Mar 6, 2025

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 44

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

Bizarrly, Trump keeps claiming that the tariffs on Canada are due to fentanyl, which is a very weak argument. The tariffs are clearly to protect US industry and to force firms to move their production to the US.

Mar 5, 2025
 

Trump trade policy 2.0

trade-wars

A chronicle of the administration’s early trade moves since January 21 — investigations before sweeping tariffs, mixed signals on China, and internal debate over a universal tariff.

Mar 4, 2025
 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 43

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

US tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada are now active. Canada and China already announced their retaliatory measures, and Mexico is expected to follow suit with announcement by the end of the week.

Mar 4, 2025
 

Trump tariffs 2.0 Update

trade-wars

New 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico plus 20% on China take effect, modelled to push the US itself into recession alongside its neighbours.

Mar 3, 2025
 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 42

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

On the 2nd March 2025, Trump decidedly moved forward with his vision on the new world order with America shutting down its links to the outside world.

Mar 3, 2025
 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 39

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary
  • Trump indicated he is working on a UK trade deal that could exempt Britain from tariffs - Called Starmer a “tough negotiator” who is trying to persuade him against imposing tariffs on Britain - Trump’s UK comments came after threatening 25% tariffs on EU…
Feb 28, 2025

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 38

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary
  • Implement tariffs on Mexico and Canada starting March 4 (reversing a previous delay) - Add an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports (on top of existing 10% tariffs) starting March 4 - Proceed with planned “reciprocal” tariffs affecting various countries…
Feb 27, 2025
 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 37

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

Today, President Trump held his first cabinet meeting of his second term, featuring notable attendees including Elon Musk.

Feb 26, 2025

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 24

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

Trump issued a new executive order on reciprocal tariffs against other countries, which includes VAT and Non-tariff measures. The order is available here. In a tweet that preceeded the order he explained that VAT in particular is unfair against US companies.

Feb 13, 2025

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 21

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

Donald Trump said he would on Monday impose 25 per cent tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports, expanding his trade conflicts to the metals sector in a new burst of protectionism from Washington.

Feb 10, 2025
 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 20

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

Over the last 5 days, there were no significant changes in Trump stance on trade policy. However, there were some interesting development in China retaliatory measures against the US and Trump reaction to it.

Feb 9, 2025
 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 15

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

China slaps 15% tariffs on US coal and LNG moments after Trump’s new tariffs come into effect.

Feb 4, 2025

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 14

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

In a miracluous turn of events, Trump announced that he is lifting tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The tariffs were supposed to be effective from February 4, but Trump changed his mind.

Feb 3, 2025
 

Trump tariffs v2.0 Update

trade-wars

The trade war is on: Canada gets a preferential 10% rate on energy given US reliance on Canadian crude, while Mexico still faces the full 25%.

Feb 2, 2025

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 12

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

The US is set to implement steep tariffs on its three largest trading partners—Canada, Mexico, and China—beginning February 1. Under President Trump’s directive, Canada and Mexico will face a 25% tariff, while China will be subject to a 10% levy.

Feb 1, 2025
 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 11

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

The proposed tariffs could have significant ripple effects throughout the North American economy.

Jan 31, 2025
 

Trump’s Trade War 2.0

trade-wars

Trump’s new 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China, modelled to cut Mexican and Canadian exports by up to a quarter, with oil imports the key exposure.

Jan 31, 2025
 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 7

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary
  • Initial tariff would start at 2.5% and increase by 2.5% monthly - Could eventually reach 20% - Gradual approach aims to give businesses time to adjust and allow for negotiations - Trump wants “much bigger” tariffs than 2.5% - Trump threatened tariffs on…
Jan 27, 2025

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 6

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

Today Trump unexpectedly announced 25% tariffs on Colombia for refusing to lend 2 airplains with Colombina nationals, who were extradicted from the US.

Jan 26, 2025
 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 2

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

Trump surprised everyone with much softer stance against China. Today he announced that he considers a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, but only if Beijing does not agree a deal on TikTok. He also linked the tariff to fetanyl exports from China.

Jan 22, 2025
 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 1

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

No specifics so far on anticipated tariff hikes, but all options on the table.

Jan 21, 2025
 

Welcome

meta

Why this site exists, and what to expect from it.

Jan 15, 2025
 

Productivity, trade openness and UK trade policy adventurism

brexit
other

The UK’s productivity problem is really a competition problem — record markups and weak business dynamism, best addressed by a customs union with the EU.

Dec 3, 2024
 

How political alliances shape trade and welfare in Europe

trade-wars
political-economy

Research with Karen Jackson finds NATO membership significantly boosts exports, and that expansion to Finland, Sweden, and Ukraine would benefit EU economies.

Nov 18, 2024
 

The Future of Electric Vehicles and Technology Leadership

firms
trade-wars

How China’s rise to 30% of global EV exports has triggered US and EU tariffs, and what that means for the industry as growth slows.

Oct 8, 2024
 

FAQ: Political Alliances and Trade: Europe in a Polarized World

trade-wars
political-economy

A Q&A on new research showing NATO membership boosts bilateral trade by 24-63%, and what alliance expansion or collapse would mean for Europe.

Sep 28, 2024
 

Military alliances and trade: The Economic Case for NATO Expansion

trade-wars
nato

Research with Karen Jackson showing NATO expansion brings measurable trade and welfare gains for Europe, while a US withdrawal or a stronger Shanghai Cooperation Organisation would not.

Sep 27, 2024
 

Global value chains in Electric Vehicles

firms
electric-vehicles

A look at the UK’s critical dependencies in EV global value chains, and what they mean for supply chain resilience and economic security.

Sep 19, 2024
 

Would a veterinary agreement be a boost for UK-EU agri-food exports?

brexit
agrifood

Drawing on 279 trade agreements worldwide, this piece finds a UK-EU veterinary deal built on mutual recognition could lift UK agri-food exports to the EU by 22.5% within a decade.

Jun 17, 2024
 

Russian economy on life support

ukraine
russia-economy

As Western firms withdrew, Chinese exports to Russia more than doubled, giving Beijing outsized leverage over Moscow’s wartime economy.

Mar 27, 2024
 

Friend-shoring: what Biden wants to achieve by trading with allies rather than rivals

trade-wars

Mexico and Canada have overtaken China as America’s top trading partners as Biden’s friend-shoring strategy reshapes US trade — but the long-run payoff is uncertain.

Mar 20, 2024
 

Who sponsors Russian war machine?

ukraine
russia-economy

Russia’s pivot to China and India after sanctions boosted export revenue short-term, but left the war economy dangerously concentrated on two buyers.

Mar 18, 2024
 

China’s Trade Dynamics in 2021-2023

trade-wars
china

China’s exports peaked in 2022 before falling in 2023, with trade reorienting away from the US and Taiwan and toward Russia and Brazil.

Jan 22, 2024
 

Why UK and old Europe have stagnation in productivity growth?

other
brexit
ukraine

Structural drag from an ageing workforce and thin R&D investment, compounded by Brexit’s hit to trade openness and the energy shock from the Ukraine war.

Aug 29, 2023
 

GDP Blues: Unravelling the UK’s Troubled Economic Slowdown

other
brexit

Four reasons behind the UK’s anaemic 0.9% real GDP growth from 2019 to 2023, from collapsing consumer confidence to new post-Brexit trade barriers.

Jul 30, 2023
 

Lies, big lies, and Russian statistics

ukraine
russia-economy

Why Russia’s official 1.8% GDP decline for Q1 2023 likely understates the real contraction by masking it in inflated price deflators.

Jul 7, 2023
 

Russian rouble does not trust the government

ukraine
russia-economy

The rouble’s 2.5% drop right after official reassurances shows how little credibility the Russian government carries with markets.

Jul 7, 2023
 

The impact of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement on UK trade

brexit

New econometric evidence that the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement cut UK exports to the EU by over 22% and shrank export product variety.

Jun 14, 2023
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