Firms

What trade policy actually does at the level of the firm.

Trade shocks and trade policy don’t hit “the economy” — they hit individual firms, unevenly, depending on what they export, how they’re organised, and how productive they already were. This hub collects the firm- and product-level microdata work that sits underneath the country-level headlines in the other hubs.

Compliance with non-tariff measures acts as a quality filter: firms that clear stricter standards see productivity and price-premium gains, while firms that can’t absorb the compliance cost exit export markets entirely — a pattern that shows up across Ukrainian food-processing, UK services exports, and Ukrainian manufacturing alike.

Work

How did the Brexit uncertainty impact services exports of UK firms?

brexit
firms
services-trade
firm-level
Journal of International Business Policy, 2025. With Jun Du and Xiaocan Yuan.
Show abstract Using firm-level data and a synthetic difference-in-differences design, we estimate that Brexit-related policy uncertainty reduced UK services exports by 9.2% a year on average, a cumulative loss of roughly USD 146.8 billion between 2016 and 2019 — distinct from, and larger than, the effect of the tariff and non-tariff barriers that eventually took effect. The impact fell disproportionately on small and medium-sized exporters, while multinational enterprises were more likely to relocate operations outside the UK altogether.

Shocked by COVID: Exporting along global value chains

firms
brexit
CEP Discussion Paper dp2105, 2025. With Holger Breinlich and Jun Du.
Show abstract Using UK customs data from 2017 to 2020 and a shift-share identification strategy that exploits the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment, we estimate an elasticity of exports with respect to intermediate imports of 0.4: a one-standard-deviation increase in COVID-related restrictions in sourcing countries reduced intermediate exports by 3.7%. The result highlights a paradox in protectionist trade policy — measures aimed at self-sufficiency can damage export performance by disrupting the supply chains exporters depend on.

Impact of TB Epidemic on Worker and Firm Productivity: Regional Perspective from Ukraine

ukraine
firms
GLO Discussion Paper 1360, 2023. With Olena Nizalova.
Show abstract Tuberculosis remains a significant regional health burden in Ukraine, with prevalence varying sharply across oblasts. We link regional TB incidence to worker- and firm-level productivity outcomes, asking how much of Ukraine’s regional productivity gap this specific health channel can account for — evidence with direct relevance to postwar health and labour policy.

Non-tariff measures and productivity of Ukrainian food-processing firms

ukraine
trade-wars
firms
agrifood
non-tariff-measures
firm-level
Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2022. With Volodymyr Vakhitov, Veronika Movchan, and Mariia Panga.
Show abstract Using detailed data on veterinary, ecological, sanitary, phytosanitary, and mandatory certification measures, we study how non-tariff measures affect firm productivity in Ukraine’s food-processing industry through forward and backward linkages, comparing quantity- and revenue-based measures of total factor productivity. Non-tariff measures on intermediate inputs reduce quantity-based productivity, and firms that rely heavily on imported inputs see the biggest long-run productivity losses when input requirements tighten; revenue-based effects are muted because firms adjust prices and quality instead.

Non-tariff measures, quality and exporting: evidence from microdata

ukraine
consultancy
firms
non-tariff-measures
firm-level
European Review of Agricultural Economics, 2020. With Veronika Movchan and Volodymyr Vakhitov.
Show abstract Domestic non-tariff measures influence firms’ production and import decisions. We introduce non-tariff measures into a model with heterogeneous firms, where they raise production costs but also act as a positive demand shifter — leaving their net effect on the extensive and intensive margins of trade ambiguous. Testing the model’s predictions on Ukrainian food-processing firms in 2008–2013: more SPS regulation on upstream inputs is associated with exports of higher-quality products, while mandatory certification has a negative effect on quality by limiting firms’ access to new technology and equipment.

Services liberalization and productivity of manufacturing firms

firms
ukraine
services-trade
firm-level
The Economics of Transition, 2015. With Volodymyr Vakhitov.
Show abstract Using a unique panel of Ukrainian firms from 2001 to 2007, we exploit an external push for services-sector liberalization as a source of exogenous variation to identify its effect on the total factor productivity of manufacturing firms that use those services as inputs. A one-standard-deviation increase in services liberalization raises firm TFP by 9.2%, an effect that is stronger for already-productive firms — driving a reallocation of resources within the industry — and reinforced dynamically through the investment channel; the effect is more pronounced for small, domestic firms.
No matching items