NATO’s Hidden Dividend and the Avoidable Cost of U.S. Withdrawal
trade-wars
nato
NATO membership raises bilateral trade by 12–27%; a U.S. exit would cut American exports by about 16% (roughly $240 billion a year) and GDP by around 4%.
NATO membership delivers economic benefits well beyond security: member states see bilateral trade rise by 12–27 percent. Drawing on our research, the piece estimates that a U.S. exit from the alliance would reduce American exports by about 16.1 percent (roughly $240 billion annually) and GDP by around 4 percent. The alliance’s economic integration, built through standardization agreements, interoperability requirements and long-term institutional trust, is a strategic asset that took 75 years to develop but could be lost far more rapidly if commitment erodes.
Co-authored with Philip Luck and Karen Jackson.
Originally published on CSIS, April 22, 2026.