Trade Wars

When allies coerce, markets fragment, and geopolitics rewrites the trade map.

Trade policy is once again a geopolitical instrument. This hub covers the US–China trade war, the use of tariffs and export controls as tools of economic coercion, political alliances as predictors of trade flows, and what retaliation actually costs the countries that impose it.

Political alignment is now a statistically significant predictor of bilateral trade flows, independent of standard gravity-model fundamentals — trade is following geopolitics, not just the other way around.

Work

Political alliances and trade: Europe in a polarized world

trade-wars

political-economy

gravity

European Journal of Political Economy, 2024. With Karen Jackson.

Transforming East Asia: Regional Integration in a Trade War Era

trade-wars

Open Economies Review, 2023. With Karen Jackson.

Non-tariff measures and productivity of Ukrainian food-processing firms

ukraine

trade-wars

agrifood

non-tariff-measures

firm-level

Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2022. With Volodymyr Vakhitov, Veronika Movchan, and Mariia Panga.

Belt and road: The China dream?

trade-wars

China Economic Review, 2021. With Karen Jackson.

Popular Support For Trade Agreements And Partner Country Characteristics

consultancy

trade-wars

Economic Inquiry, 2021. With Tom Coupé.

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Trade policy is once again a geopolitical instrument. This hub covers the
US–China trade war, the use of tariffs and export controls as tools of
economic coercion, political alliances as predictors of trade flows, and
what retaliation actually costs the countries that impose it.

**Political alignment is now a statistically significant predictor of
bilateral trade flows, independent of standard gravity-model
fundamentals** — trade is following geopolitics, not just the other way
around.

## Work

::: {#trade-wars-items}
:::