UK-US deal? Not so fast!
brexit
trade-wars
The UK is squeezed from both sides: Trump tariffs are hitting US-bound exports even after the Economic Prosperity Deal, while Brexit-era TCA friction keeps taxing trade with the EU.
Trump’s tariffs have driven the largest monthly fall in US exports on record (data back to January 1997), and the UK’s Economic Prosperity Deal with Washington hasn’t spared exporters from 25% car tariffs and a 10% general surcharge. Meanwhile, Trade and Cooperation Agreement frictions continue to weigh on UK-EU trade, so the UK is absorbing costs on both its largest trading relationships at once. The piece argues the more reliable fix is closer to home: renegotiating the TCA and deepening EU ties, rather than banking on an unpredictable US partner.
Originally published on Substack, June 12, 2025.