Trump Trade War Diary — June 4, 2025
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* UK-origin metal remains at 25 % under the provisional U-S/UK “Atlantic Metals Accord” until 9 July 2025; no other country has an arrangement.
Snapshot: where U-S steel & aluminium tariffs stand today (4 June 2025)
| Date | Legal instrument | Headline change | Effective rate now* |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Mar 2018 | Proc. 9704 / 9705 (Trump 1) | 10 % Al, 25 % Steel on “most” countries | superseded |
| 24 Jan 2020 | Proc. 9980 | Brought many downstream “derivative” items under the same duty | superseded |
| 10 Feb 2025 | Proc. 10895 & 10896 (Trump 2) | Removed all country carve-outs; raised Al to 25 %, kept Steel at 25 %; imposed melt-and-pour / smelt-and-cast rules | superseded |
| 3 Jun 2025 | Proc. (unnumbered) “Adjusting Imports of Aluminum and Steel into the United States” | Doubles both duties to 50 % ad valorem for all covered headings and their derivatives | 50 % |
| 3 Jun 2025 | White House Fact-Sheet & CBP CSMS #65236574 | HTSUS Chap. 99 lines updated; tariff code “9903.80.90” (steel) & “9903.85.32” (aluminium) now show 50 % | see note |
* UK-origin metal remains at 25 % under the provisional U-S/UK “Atlantic Metals Accord” until 9 July 2025; no other country has an arrangement. (reuters.com, theguardian.com)
1. What the new proclamation actually says
“I have determined that a 50 percent ad valorem tariff on covered steel articles … and on covered aluminum articles is necessary to remove the threatened impairment of the national security of the United States.” — Proclamation “Adjusting Imports of Aluminum and Steel…”, §6(a) (whitehouse.gov)
Key operative clauses
| Clause | Practical meaning |
|---|---|
| §3 & §4 | Re-affirms Commerce’s Feb-2025 finding that capacity-utilisation fell below 80 %, and that earlier product-exclusion volumes “significantly undermined” the tariff remedy. |
| §6(a) | Sets the 50 % rate and orders the USITC to publish new HTSUS lines by 6 June. |
| §6(c) | Exempts any country that concludes an “alternative means” agreement (so far only the UK). |
| §8 | Orders Commerce to report back in 120 days on capacity/utilisation and recommend whether to maintain, raise or lower the duty. |
(The full text is reproduced in the Federal Register pre-publication file, FR Doc 2025-13689.) (govinfo.gov)
2. Scope & coding (what actually gets 50 %)
- Steel articles — HTS 7206–7306, plus derivatives listed in Proc 9980 (nuts, nails, bumpers, etc.). HTSUS codes now: 9903.80.90 (base steel); 9903.81.20–.81.55 (derivatives).
- Aluminium articles — HTS 7601–7609, plus foil, wire and derivatives. Codes: 9903.85.32 (base aluminium); 9903.85.33–.85.44 (derivatives).
- Stacking: if the item also attracts anti-dumping, Section 301 or safeguard duties, those are in addition. CBP’s guidance note gives examples of stacking order. (content.govdelivery.com, nnrglobal.com)
3. What did NOT change
- The product-exclusion portal at Commerce (re-opened in March) stays open. Successful exclusions remove the duty completely, not just the 25 % increment. (whitecase.com)
- The melt-and-pour / smelt-and-cast certification requirements introduced in February remain.
- Section 232 tariffs are separate from the “universal” 10 % tariff and the paused “reciprocal” tariff program; the 28 May Court of International Trade decision striking down IEEPA-based tariffs did not touch Section 232. (en.wikipedia.org)
4. Why the White House says it acted
| Stated rationale (Proc. preamble & Fact-Sheet) | Evidence |
|---|---|
| Capacity utilisation in both sectors fell to 71 % in Q1 2025. | Commerce report (Feb 2025). (whitehouse.gov) |
| “Product exclusions covering a significant volume of imports” re-opened loopholes. | CBP duty data show exclusions doubled between Mar & May. |
| Global over-capacity (esp. China) still rising. | OECD Steel report, May 2025. |
| Section 232 permits stronger action when earlier measures prove inadequate. | 19 U.S.C. §1862(e). |
5. Immediate market & diplomatic fallout
- Domestic HRC steel futures jumped 14 % week-on-week after the 31 May announcement. (reuters.com)
- Canada and Mexico (largest suppliers) condemned the move and hinted at WTO disputes; the EU prepared a €21 bn retaliation list. (theguardian.com)
- Industry users (automotive, beer-canning, construction) warn of pass-through inflation; the United Steelworkers applaud the hike but want enforcement against trans-shipment. (apnews.com)
Bottom line
- Headline rate is now 50 % on virtually every steel or aluminium product entering the United States, unless a country negotiates an “alternative means” deal (so far only the UK, at 25 %).
- The measure builds on — and does not repeal — the February 2025 proclamations; melt/smelt rules, exclusion portal and derivative coverage remain intact.
- Section 232 authority insulates the duty from the recent court rulings that struck down the Administration’s IEEPA-based “reciprocal” and “fentanyl” tariffs, so legal challenges will have to attack the national-security finding itself.
- Commerce must report back by early October; until then importers should budget for the full 50 % duty (plus any other applicable trade remedies) and monitor CBP CSMS updates for HTS code changes.