Brexit

What leaving the EU actually did to British trade — measured, not argued.

Britain left the EU’s single market in January 2021. This body of work tracks what actually happened to UK trade and firm performance in the years since — using firm-level and product-level data rather than the pre-referendum forecasts that dominated the public debate.

Services exports from the UK to Ireland fell sharply relative to a synthetic control once the Trade and Cooperation Agreement took effect — one of the clearest firm-level signals yet that Brexit’s costs have fallen disproportionately on services, not just goods.

Work