Research

Complete list of publications, working papers, and preprints.

The complete, unfiltered list of publications, working papers, and preprints — filter or sort using the controls below. For the framing, headline findings, and policy context behind this work, see the thematic hubs: Brexit, Trade Wars, Ukraine, and Firms.

ORCID: 0000-0003-4990-6025

Work in Progress

Title Description Categories
Beyond security: The trade implications of joining NATO SSRN Working Paper / BOFIT Discussion Paper, 2026. With Karen Jackson.
Show abstract Combining structural gravity methods with a staggered difference-in-differences design, we identify the causal effect of NATO membership on bilateral trade flows, separating it from the effect of a generic military alliance. NATO accession raises exports, with benefits that unfold gradually and intensify over time, coming through several channels: protecting and securing trade routes, lowering uncertainty and boosting cross-member investment, direct trade in military and military-related goods, and logistical support for military activity.
trade-wars
Shocked by COVID: Exporting along global value chains CEP Discussion Paper dp2105, 2025. With Holger Breinlich and Jun Du.
Show abstract Using UK customs data from 2017 to 2020 and a shift-share identification strategy that exploits the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment, we estimate an elasticity of exports with respect to intermediate imports of 0.4: a one-standard-deviation increase in COVID-related restrictions in sourcing countries reduced intermediate exports by 3.7%. The result highlights a paradox in protectionist trade policy — measures aimed at self-sufficiency can damage export performance by disrupting the supply chains exporters depend on.
firms, brexit
Economic disintegration: Brexit, Non-tariff Measures, and UK Trade Research Square preprint, 2024. With Jun Du.
Show abstract Although the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement established tariff- and quota-free trade in goods, UK-EU trade costs rose significantly after Brexit. Using a synthetic control difference-in-differences design, we show the TCA had a significant, adverse effect on bilateral UK-EU trade, and we quantify the ad valorem equivalents of the non-tariff measures introduced after the Brexit transition period, tracing their impact on UK trade through 2021.
brexit
Harvesting Trade Opportunities: Staggered DID of Impact and Structural Gravity of Future of EU-UK Agrifood Trade Conference paper, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium, 2023.
Show abstract Combining a staggered difference-in-differences estimate of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement’s realised impact on EU-UK agrifood trade with a structural gravity projection of plausible future trading arrangements, we ask how much of the post-Brexit agrifood trade loss is recoverable under alternative UK-EU relationships — including a veterinary/SPS agreement — and how much looks permanent under the current trading relationship.
brexit, agrifood
Market power, productivity and distribution of wages: theory and evidence with micro data IOS Working Paper 387, 2020. With Volodymyr Vakhitov.
Show abstract The declining labor share in national income and rising inequality over the last four decades raise questions about their causes. We develop a theoretical model linking the intra-industry distribution of wages to variation in firms’ market power: wages decline with market power if and only if demand elasticity increases with a firm’s output, and trade liberalization expands more productive firms, which raises their bargaining power and lowers labor’s share of revenue. Testing the model on Ukrainian manufacturing firms in 2001–2007, we find that larger firms have more bargaining power relative to workers, that markups rise with output and market size, and that wages rise with productivity but fall with market power — results that hold at both the firm and industry level.
firms, ukraine
Trade Wars: Are Good and Easy to Win? SSRN Working Paper, 2018. With Karen Jackson.
Show abstract Taking its title from a well-known 2018 tweet, this paper uses a structural gravity approach to evaluate the welfare implications of US protectionist trade policy under three retaliatory scenarios from the EU and China. The impact on the US is negative under every scenario, ranging from 0.25% to 1.4% of GDP, with smaller US losses precisely when the EU and China do not retaliate — meaning it is a dominant strategy for both the EU and China to hold their tariffs against US goods at existing levels rather than de-escalate.
trade-wars
Political Uncertainty, FDI, and Trade in Intermediate Goods: Evidence From Ukrainian Firms Working paper, 2018. With Jan Stuckatz.
Show abstract We introduce a text-analysis-based method for measuring policy uncertainty and extend a heterogeneous-firms model with sunk investment costs to derive predictions about how trade policy uncertainty affects firm-specific investment and firms’ decisions to trade intermediate goods. Ukrainian firms faced a stark, mutually exclusive choice of trade regime — an EU free trade agreement or a Russia-led customs union — that we use to measure uncertainty directly. Using firm-product data for Ukrainian manufacturers from 2003 to 2013, we find that reduced uncertainty about the EU FTA sharply increased firm-level FDI inflows and imported intermediate goods from the EU while decreasing FDI from the customs union bloc, with more protected goods responding most strongly.
ukraine, firms
Three-Point-For-Win in Soccer: Are There Incentives for Match Fixing? SSRN Working Paper, 2010.
Show abstract A companion piece to my work on the three-point-for-a-win rule: I test whether the rule creates incentives for collusion among teams of similar strength, particularly in lower-quality leagues with weaker media scrutiny and governance. Evidence from the Ukrainian league is consistent with a specific cooperation scheme — winning at home and conceding away — that inflates the total points collected by colluding pairs of teams relative to what genuine competition would produce.
other
The Law of Unintended Consequences in Soccer: Impact of Three-Point-A-Win Rule on Strategies and Outcomes SSRN Working Paper, 2010.
Show abstract A side project in applied econometrics: using a large sample of European league matches from 1990–1997, I test whether switching from two to three points for a win — intended to reward attacking play — actually changed team strategies and match outcomes. The rule change altered incentives in ways that are not obviously captured by simple before/after comparisons of goals scored, illustrating how well-intentioned rule changes can produce unanticipated strategic responses.
other
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Published

Title Description Categories
Impact of a TB epidemic on worker and firm productivity: the regional perspective from Ukraine Journal of Population Economics, 2026. With Olena Nizalova.
Show abstract Using administrative records from Ukrainian regions between 2003–2009, we find that higher tuberculosis prevalence significantly reduced both worker wages and firm total factor productivity, while newly diagnosed cases were associated with higher wages and productivity. Geographic analysis reveals substantial spillover effects across neighbouring regions. A 10% reduction in TB prevalence is estimated to yield GDP gains of roughly 1.05% — substantially exceeding the 0.04% of GDP Ukraine spent on TB control that year, pointing to considerable underinvestment in disease mitigation.
ukraine, firms
The Return of Protectionism: Trump’s 2025 Tariffs and the Shifting Landscape of Global Trade LSE Public Policy Review, 2026. With Jun Du and Yujie Shi.
Show abstract Donald Trump’s return to the presidency in 2025 triggered the most significant protectionist surge since the 1930s, with the US average effective tariff reaching 18.2% by August 2025 — the highest level in 90 years. We synthesise economic theory and empirical evidence on the welfare effects of the new tariffs, analyse the current US trade measures, and quantify their impacts using a structural gravity model. Beyond the direct cost of the duties themselves, ongoing tariff uncertainty disrupts firms’ planning, forces costly duplication of supply chains, and triggers capital flight that undermines the very industrial goals protectionism claims to serve.
trade-wars
How did the Brexit uncertainty impact services exports of UK firms? Journal of International Business Policy, 2025. With Jun Du and Xiaocan Yuan.
Show abstract Using firm-level data and a synthetic difference-in-differences design, we estimate that Brexit-related policy uncertainty reduced UK services exports by 9.2% a year on average, a cumulative loss of roughly USD 146.8 billion between 2016 and 2019 — distinct from, and larger than, the effect of the tariff and non-tariff barriers that eventually took effect. The impact fell disproportionately on small and medium-sized exporters, while multinational enterprises were more likely to relocate operations outside the UK altogether.
brexit, firms, services-trade, firm-level
Trade Disintegration and Agri-Food Trade: United Kingdom Exit From EU The World Economy, 2025. With Jun Du and Yundan Shi.
Show abstract We provide a comprehensive difference-in-differences analysis of how the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement affected the UK’s agri-food trade after Brexit. Both the value and quantity of UK agri-food exports and imports fell significantly post-TCA, while prices rose as worsened market access and additional border checks pushed up trade costs. The results underline the importance of legal enforceability in trade agreements — particularly for agricultural and sanitary/phytosanitary provisions — for preserving market access and trade volumes.
brexit, agrifood
Brexit and the Services Trade—A Longitudinal Analysis Journal of Service Research, 2024. With Jun Du.
Show abstract Using the OECD-WTO Balanced Trade in Services dataset and a synthetic difference-in-differences design, we estimate the impact of Brexit uncertainty on UK services trade from 2016 to 2019. UK services exports fell short of a synthetic no-Brexit counterfactual by an average of US$23.7bn (£18.5bn) a year — a 5.65% reduction — with substantial variation across sectors and destinations. Bilateral exports fell by 8.5% on average; large markets such as Germany and the US were less affected than smaller ones, UK exports to the EU as a whole declined by 6.21%, while, strikingly, exports to Ireland expanded by 21.4%.
brexit, firms, services-trade
Political alliances and trade: Europe in a polarized world European Journal of Political Economy, 2024. With Karen Jackson.
Show abstract This study investigates how political alliances influence trade and welfare in Europe and major global economies amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Using a panel data approach, we assess the impact of military alliances on trade through structural gravity and staggered difference-in-differences methods, then simulate the effects of alliance strengthening or disintegration. NATO enlargement brings economic benefits for Europe, while a US withdrawal from NATO or a deepening Shanghai Cooperation Organisation would produce significant negative trade and welfare effects.
trade-wars, political-economy, gravity
Transforming East Asia: Regional Integration in a Trade War Era Open Economies Review, 2023. With Karen Jackson.
Show abstract We evaluate the trade and welfare implications of deeper East Asian integration — via a China-Japan-Korea free trade agreement — against the backdrop of continuing US-China trade tensions, using a structural gravity approach. For China, the FTA can offset continued trade tensions with the US; tariff reductions deliver larger welfare gains than reductions in non-tariff barriers, and a deeper agreement is more welfare-enhancing for all members. East Asian integration looks more attractive to its members in light of US tensions, not less.
trade-wars
How did Brexit affect UK trade? Contemporary Social Science, 2023. With Jun Du and Emine Beyza Satoglu.
Show abstract Using COMTRADE data from 2019 to 2022Q1 and synthetic difference-in-differences, we build a counterfactual UK that did not experience the Trade and Cooperation Agreement to assess its effect on UK trade. The negative, large, and statistically significant impact on UK exports persisted throughout the period, with the gap between actual and synthetic UK exports widening to 26% on average. The TCA also caused a significant contraction in the variety of goods the UK exports to the EU.
brexit
UK trade in the time of COVID-19: A review The World Economy, 2022. With Jun Du.
Show abstract We review the UK’s trade performance through the COVID-19 crisis and consider how it might be revived. UK goods exports contracted more sharply in 2020 than those of international peers, with a deeper decline and slower recovery than Germany, Italy, Spain, and the US. Trends from 2017 to 2019 already showed the UK’s global competitiveness weakening, suggesting a more persistent problem against a backdrop of productivity slowdown and Brexit uncertainty. We analyse the confluence of internal and external factors bearing on UK trade and argue that boosting productivity is central to recovering from both the COVID shock and Brexit.
brexit
Non-tariff measures and productivity of Ukrainian food-processing firms Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2022. With Volodymyr Vakhitov, Veronika Movchan, and Mariia Panga.
Show abstract Using detailed data on veterinary, ecological, sanitary, phytosanitary, and mandatory certification measures, we study how non-tariff measures affect firm productivity in Ukraine’s food-processing industry through forward and backward linkages, comparing quantity- and revenue-based measures of total factor productivity. Non-tariff measures on intermediate inputs reduce quantity-based productivity, and firms that rely heavily on imported inputs see the biggest long-run productivity losses when input requirements tighten; revenue-based effects are muted because firms adjust prices and quality instead.
ukraine, trade-wars, firms, agrifood, non-tariff-measures, firm-level
Ukraine’s Integration into the EU’s Digital Single Market FREE Network Policy Brief, 2021. With Pavlo Iavorskyi and Svitlana Taran.
Show abstract We assess how Ukraine’s integration into the EU’s Digital Single Market would affect EU-Ukraine bilateral trade and Ukraine’s GDP growth. The main gains would come from reducing cross-border regulatory barriers to EU-Ukraine digital trade and accelerating the development of Ukraine’s digital economy in line with EU standards. Enhanced regulatory and digital connectivity is projected to raise Ukraine’s exports of goods to the EU by 11.8–17% and of services by 7.6–12.2%.
ukraine, consultancy
Belt and road: The China dream? China Economic Review, 2021. With Karen Jackson.
Show abstract Using a general equilibrium structural gravity model with mobile capital flows, we assess how the Belt and Road Initiative’s effects on trade costs and investment affect trade and consumer welfare in China, the EU, and the rest of the world. A 15% reduction in China-EU transport costs would raise representative-consumer welfare by 1.27% in China and 0.5% in the EU; combining the initiative with a deep EU-China free trade agreement would raise welfare by 4.37% and 1.99% respectively — substantial gains concentrated in the two blocs directly involved.
trade-wars
An examination of EU trade disintegration scenarios The World Economy, 2021. With Karen Jackson.
Show abstract Using a structural gravity approach, we examine the welfare implications of scenarios in which the EU itself partially disintegrates, rather than just the UK leaving it. The remaining EU countries stand to lose considerably more from EU disintegration than they did from a disorderly Brexit. Some neighbouring high- and middle-income countries — Bosnia and Herzegovina and Norway among them — would actually benefit under certain disintegration scenarios, gaining trade competitiveness relative to the weakened EU bloc.
brexit, trade-wars
Popular Support For Trade Agreements And Partner Country Characteristics Economic Inquiry, 2021. With Tom Coupé.
Show abstract Using quasi-experimental survey data collected immediately before and after the November 2016 US presidential election, we test how the election of Donald Trump affected Europeans’ willingness to sign a trade and investment agreement with the United States. The election outcome produced an immediate, sizeable negative shift in Europeans’ image of the United States, but no corresponding drop in their willingness to sign a trade agreement — popular support for a deal proved more durable than opinion of the partner country itself.
consultancy, trade-wars
Non-tariff measures, quality and exporting: evidence from microdata European Review of Agricultural Economics, 2020. With Veronika Movchan and Volodymyr Vakhitov.
Show abstract Domestic non-tariff measures influence firms’ production and import decisions. We introduce non-tariff measures into a model with heterogeneous firms, where they raise production costs but also act as a positive demand shifter — leaving their net effect on the extensive and intensive margins of trade ambiguous. Testing the model’s predictions on Ukrainian food-processing firms in 2008–2013: more SPS regulation on upstream inputs is associated with exports of higher-quality products, while mandatory certification has a negative effect on quality by limiting firms’ access to new technology and equipment.
ukraine, consultancy, firms, non-tariff-measures, firm-level
Conflict and well-being of civilians: The case of the Russian-Ukrainian hybrid war Economic Systems, 2020. With Maryna Osiichuk.
Show abstract Using two large household surveys spanning 2012–2016 and a multi-dimensional concept of well-being, we estimate the contemporaneous effect of the Russian-Ukrainian hybrid war on civilians living outside the conflict zone in both countries. The conflict significantly worsened financial well-being, an effect that operates mostly through worsened expectations and that fades with distance from the conflict zone, and hit women’s financial well-being harder than men’s. Chronic disease increased in Ukraine over the longer term, while mental health effects appeared earlier and were more pronounced for men.
ukraine
How to Intensify and Diversify Ukrainian Exports? The Case of Bilateral Trade with Germany FREE Network / KSE Policy Brief, 2019.
Show abstract Ukraine and Germany sit at different levels of economic development but are both highly open to trade, leaving room for gains from deeper bilateral trade — yet Ukrainian exports to Germany remain insufficiently diversified and under-exploited along both the extensive and intensive margins. Analysing which sectors of the German economy depend most on imports and where Ukrainian manufacturers could plausibly compete, we identify 67 product groups most promising for expanding Ukrainian exports to Germany, aligned with the priority sectors in Ukraine’s Export Strategy.
ukraine, consultancy
Post-Brexit trade survival: Looking beyond the European Union Economic Modelling, 2018. With Karen Jackson.
Show abstract We explore the welfare implications of a new EU-UK relationship alongside major trade policy initiatives, evaluating five Brexit scenarios that vary in their assumptions about a UK-EU deal, TTIP, and new free trade agreements with the US or Commonwealth countries, tracking welfare changes over two decades. The impact of Brexit is negative under every scenario, with losses smallest under a soft Brexit and worse if TTIP proceeds — underscoring the value of large-bloc membership. Losses occur gradually and can be partly offset by new trade agreements, but a hard Brexit should be avoided to minimise them.
brexit, consultancy, gravity
The evolution of firm-level distributions for Ukrainian manufacturing firms Journal of Comparative Economics, 2016. With Kim P. Huynh, David T. Jacho-Chávez, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, and Volodymyr Vakhitov.
Show abstract Using unique annual firm-level data for 2001–2009 compiled from Ukraine’s state statistics service, we document rich variation across firms’ characteristics and the macroeconomic volatility — often tied to political turmoil — that accompanies it. Applying functional principal component analysis while accounting for region, industry, trade status, and firm turnover, we show that overall productivity improvements in Ukrainian manufacturing over 2001–2009 varied substantially by industry, trade status, and firm turnover, while regional effects mattered comparatively little.
ukraine, firms
Effect of non-tariff measures on extensive and intensive margins of exports in seafood trade Marine Policy, 2016.
Show abstract Studying global seafood exports from 1996 to 2011, I find that SPS and TBT non-tariff measures affect trade in opposite ways: SPS measures largely increase the extensive margin of exports (more exporters entering) while reducing the intensive margin (less per exporter), whereas TBTs mostly reduce the extensive margin while increasing the intensive margin. Specific trade concerns raised at the WTO have a larger effect on exports than either SPS or TBT notifications alone, both economically and statistically, with substantial heterogeneity across product lines around a consistent central tendency.
firms, non-tariff-measures
Services liberalization and productivity of manufacturing firms The Economics of Transition, 2015. With Volodymyr Vakhitov.
Show abstract Using a unique panel of Ukrainian firms from 2001 to 2007, we exploit an external push for services-sector liberalization as a source of exogenous variation to identify its effect on the total factor productivity of manufacturing firms that use those services as inputs. A one-standard-deviation increase in services liberalization raises firm TFP by 9.2%, an effect that is stronger for already-productive firms — driving a reallocation of resources within the industry — and reinforced dynamically through the investment channel; the effect is more pronounced for small, domestic firms.
firms, ukraine, services-trade, firm-level
Export diversification across countries and products: Do Eastern European (EE) and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries diversify enough? The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 2013.
Show abstract Eastern European and CIS countries both substantially increased trade openness since the start of transition, but took different paths in the product and geographic composition of their exports. Comparing actual diversification to levels predicted by a gravity equation estimated on a large country sample for 2001–2007, I find CIS countries deviate substantially from predicted diversification levels, while EE countries track the model much more closely. All CIS countries lag the region’s leaders, the Czech Republic and Poland, in export diversification; countries heavily engaged in raw-materials exports have the most concentrated exports, and Belarus has the least geographically diversified exports of any transition country.
other
Spatial spillovers in the development of institutions Journal of Development Economics, 2013. With Harry H. Kelejian and Peter Murrell.
Show abstract We examine spatial spillovers in institutional development, where the explanatory variable of interest is the level of institutions in bordering countries — a spatial lag of the dependent variable — using new results in spatial econometrics to address the missing-data problems that usually plague spatial empirical work. Spatial institutional spillovers are statistically significant and economically important; a counterfactual removing the USSR reveals large direct and indirect spillovers, a result that holds up across yearly cross-sections, fixed-effects estimates, and numerous additional robustness checks.
other, institutions, spatial-econometrics
Impact of WTO Accession on the Bound and Applied Tariff Rates of Russia Eastern European Economics, 2013. With David G. Tarr.
Show abstract Using ten-digit trade data, we assess how Russia’s tariff structure changed as a result of joining a customs union with Kazakhstan and Belarus, and how it will change as WTO commitments phase in through 2020. WTO commitments progressively and significantly lower Russia’s applied tariffs, ultimately falling to 45–68% of pre-accession levels, with the largest fall on a trade-weighted basis: from 13.0% to 5.8% weighted average, versus 11.5% to 7.9% unweighted. Even after full implementation, bound tariffs will still exceed applied tariffs on nearly 1,500 tariff lines.
other
Cities in Transition Comparative Economic Studies, 2012.
Show abstract We examine urban development in transition countries from 1991 to 2010, focusing on the more recent decade. Socialist-era urban policy restrained the growth of the largest cities and pushed the spatial distribution of population toward artificial uniformity; the shift to a market economy is reducing these distortions, but convergence is slow. Housing market rigidities, inadequate urban infrastructure, and inconsistent government policy continue to prevent people from moving to the largest, most productive cities.
other, urban-economics, transition-economies
Spatial complementarity of FDI: the example of transition countries Post-Communist Economies, 2012.
Show abstract We study the spatial determinants of FDI location — FDI in neighbouring countries and foreign market potential — across a panel of 25 transition countries from 1993 to 2010. Spatial FDI spillovers are positive and economically large; omitting them seriously misspecifies models of FDI location. The complementarity is stronger in disaggregated (bilateral, sector-level) data, with substantial heterogeneity across sectors: spillovers are large and positive in services but non-significant or even negative in manufacturing.
other, fdi, spatial-econometrics, transition-economies
A Gravity Model of Net Benefits of EU Membership: The Case of Ukraine Journal of Economic Integration, 2010.
Show abstract I develop a methodology for analysing the costs and benefits of alternative regional integration scenarios, based on a disaggregated gravity equation, and apply it to the 2004 EU enlargement from Ukraine’s perspective — a country left outside the expanding bloc. This lens makes it possible to estimate the cost of non-integration: trade and investment diverted away from Ukraine, and forgone opportunities to carry out structural changes in the Ukrainian economy that EU accession would have forced or accelerated.
ukraine
Specific Tariffs, Tariff Simplification, and the Structure of Import Tariffs in Russia Eastern European Economics, 2008. With David Tarr.
Show abstract Russia’s tariff structure contains over 11,000 tariff lines, of which roughly 1,700 can carry a specific (per-unit) tariff — these are typically excluded from published ad valorem tariff statistics, understating true protection. Using a new dataset, we provide the first accurate assessment of Russian tariff rates: the average tariff rose from about 11.5% in 2001 to 13–14.5% by 2003, then held steady through 2005, placing Russia above other middle-income countries and well above the OECD. The trade-weighted standard deviation of tariffs roughly doubled from 9.5% to 18% over 2001–2003 before falling back to 15.2% by 2005; ignoring specific tariffs underestimates average tariff rates by one to three percentage points.
other
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