Military alliances and trade: The Economic Case for NATO Expansion
trade-wars
nato
Research with Karen Jackson showing NATO expansion brings measurable trade and welfare gains for Europe, while a US withdrawal or a stronger Shanghai Cooperation Organisation would not.
With Karen Jackson, this piece sets out the trade and welfare consequences of military alliance structures in a polarised world. The finding: NATO expansion delivers real economic benefits to member states, functioning as a predictor of stronger trade ties, not just a security arrangement. The reverse scenarios — a US departure from NATO, or a deepening Shanghai Cooperation Organisation — point the other way, with negative trade and welfare effects for Europe, underlining how closely political alignment and trade patterns now track each other.
Originally published on Substack, September 27, 2024.