Lies, big lies, and Russian statistics
ukraine
russia-economy
Why Russia’s official 1.8% GDP decline for Q1 2023 likely understates the real contraction by masking it in inflated price deflators.
A close read of Rosstat’s Q1 2023 release, comparing nominal and real sectoral figures. The implied GDP deflator for raw materials shows a 31.3% price decline against an officially reported 26.3%, and similar gaps recur across other sectors — inconsistencies that flatter the real growth number. Correcting for them points to an actual contraction closer to 5%, far worse than the headline 1.8%, and a reminder that wartime Russian statistics need independent scrutiny before they feed into international forecasts.
Originally published on Substack, July 7, 2023.