GDP Blues: Unravelling the UK’s Troubled Economic Slowdown
other
brexit
Four reasons behind the UK’s anaemic 0.9% real GDP growth from 2019 to 2023, from collapsing consumer confidence to new post-Brexit trade barriers.
The UK’s real GDP grew just 0.9% between 2019 and 2023, well behind comparable economies, and this post traces that underperformance to four compounding causes: weak consumer confidence dragging down domestic spending, export growth stalled by new post-Brexit trade barriers, falling imports signalling reduced participation in global supply chains, and a recovery propped up disproportionately by government spending rather than private investment. Fixing the structural issues, not just riding out the cycle, is what the piece argues Britain actually needs.
Originally published on Substack, July 30, 2023.