Trade Wars

When allies coerce, markets fragment, and geopolitics rewrites the trade map.

Trade policy is once again a geopolitical instrument. This hub covers the US–China trade war, the use of tariffs and export controls as tools of economic coercion, political alliances as predictors of trade flows, and what retaliation actually costs the countries that impose it.

Political alignment is now a statistically significant predictor of bilateral trade flows, independent of standard gravity-model fundamentals — trade is following geopolitics, not just the other way around.

Work

 

Brussels Races the Clock: Europe’s Last-Minute Bid to Lock In a US Trade Deal

trade-wars

The EU is racing to lock in a ‘rules and stability’ pact with the US by July, trading regulatory alignment for insulation against future tariff shocks.

 

Trump’s 25% Tariff Shock on EU Cars: Trade Deal or Trade War?

trade-wars

Trump raised US tariffs on EU-built cars from 15% to 25% while exempting European brands’ American-made vehicles, adding roughly $5,000 to a $50,000 imported car.

 

The Return of Protectionism: Trump’s 2025 Tariffs and the Shifting Landscape of Global Trade

trade-wars
LSE Public Policy Review, 2026. With Jun Du and Yujie Shi.
Show abstract Donald Trump’s return to the presidency in 2025 triggered the most significant protectionist surge since the 1930s, with the US average effective tariff reaching 18.2% by August 2025 — the highest level in 90 years. We synthesise economic theory and empirical evidence on the welfare effects of the new tariffs, analyse the current US trade measures, and quantify their impacts using a structural gravity model. Beyond the direct cost of the duties themselves, ongoing tariff uncertainty disrupts firms’ planning, forces costly duplication of supply chains, and triggers capital flight that undermines the very industrial goals protectionism claims to serve.
 

What steel tariffs reveal about the cost of going it alone

brexit
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firms

New modelling with Jun Du finds UK steel tariffs cut imports 20% and raised consumer prices 27%, hitting downstream steel-users far harder than primary steelmakers — coordinating with the EU would pay off.

 

NATO’s Hidden Dividend and the Avoidable Cost of U.S. Withdrawal

trade-wars
nato

NATO membership raises bilateral trade by 12–27%; a U.S. exit would cut American exports by about 16% (roughly $240 billion a year) and GDP by around 4%.

 

Tariffs as Taxes at Home: How Trump-Era Trade Wars Still Shape Trade in 2026

trade-wars

Evidence shows Trump-era tariffs behaved like domestic taxes rather than foreign penalties — mostly passed through to US consumers, with little reshoring to show for it.

 

From Steel to Pills: Trump’s Tariff Weapon Gets a Big Upgrade

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Section 232 national-security tariffs, once limited to steel and aluminium, now reach copper and patented pharmaceuticals — turning ‘national security’ into a catch-all trade rationale.

 

Beyond security: The trade implications of joining NATO

trade-wars
SSRN Working Paper / BOFIT Discussion Paper, 2026. With Karen Jackson.
Show abstract Combining structural gravity methods with a staggered difference-in-differences design, we identify the causal effect of NATO membership on bilateral trade flows, separating it from the effect of a generic military alliance. NATO accession raises exports, with benefits that unfold gradually and intensify over time, coming through several channels: protecting and securing trade routes, lowering uncertainty and boosting cross-member investment, direct trade in military and military-related goods, and logistical support for military activity.
 

Brussels Says “Yes, But…” to Washington

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The European Parliament conditionally approved a limited EU-US trade package that trades modest tariff cuts for firm safeguards on regulatory autonomy.

 

The £135 Question: Is Britain About to Tax Your Online Shopping Cart?

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other

The UK plans to scrap its £135 low-value import relief by 2029, following the EU and US in closing the cheap-parcel loophole — with a real hit to consumer prices.

 

Steel Shield, Budget Blowout

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firms

The UK’s plan to double steel tariffs to protect domestic producers threatens to raise construction costs and deepen HS2’s budget crisis.

 

After the Court slapped down Trump’s tariffs, USTR is trying to build a sturdier tariff machine

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The Trump administration is using Section 301 ‘overcapacity’ investigations against 16 trading partners to build a legally sturdier basis for tariffs after courts blocked its earlier approach.

 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 414

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Being defeated in the Supreme Court, Trump is now trying to find ways to keep his tariffs in place. His trade representative, Jamieson Greer initiated a section 301 investigation, which is available at link.

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 395

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The US Supreme Court strikes down Trump tariffs.

 

Europe Flirts with a “Buy European” Era

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As its global manufacturing share slides and China and the US both subsidise heavily, the EU is turning to ‘Buy European’ procurement rules — security-framed protectionism with real risks of retaliation.

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 374

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The US has announced it will decertify Bombardier aircraft and threatens 50% tariffs on all Canadian planes—unless Canada certifies Gulfstream jets “immediately.” This is a notable shift in trade war tactics.

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 371

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Over the last several months, there were no significant changes in the trade policy diary, until post -New Year period, when Trump announced a new wave of tariff threats asking for political consessions from several countries.

 

Europe has five options for responding to Trump’s Greenland threats. None of them look good

other
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Trump’s tariff threats against eight European nations over Greenland aren’t really about trade — they’re about territory, and Europe’s five available responses all carry real costs.

 

On the Curious Case of Pasta, Shrimps, and the Unraveling of the Liberal Trade Order

trade-wars

From pasta tariffs to seafood bans, food trade is becoming a favoured tool for political signalling — a symptom of the world fragmenting back into 1930s-style trading blocs.

 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 298

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The White House announced four new “frameworks for Agreements on Reciprocal Trade” with El Salvador, Argentina, Guatemala, and Ecuador. Although framed as “historic trade deals,” these are not full free trade agreements.

 

The Great Pasta War: how America turned spaghetti into a trade weapon

trade-wars

Data show Italian pasta sells in the US at a 25-30% premium over European prices, undercutting the dumping claims behind Washington’s 91% tariff — this is trade policy as political theatre.

 

Taiwan’s Tech Triumph: AI Demand Propels Exports to New Heights

trade-wars
firms

Taiwan’s exports surged nearly 50% year-on-year on AI-driven chip demand, underscoring its pivotal role in the global tech supply chain while the EU and UK fall behind.

 

Supreme Court Showdown: Can a President Unilaterally Shape Trade Policy?

trade-wars

The Supreme Court weighs whether a president can impose tariffs unilaterally under emergency powers law — a ruling that could redraw the line between executive and Congressional control of trade.

 

Trade Truce 2.0: US–China Framework Eases Fears, Lifts Oil and Stocks

trade-wars

A tentative US-China framework from the Kuala Lumpur talks trades a pause on rare-earth export curbs for commitments on soybeans and fentanyl precursors — but the truce is fragile.

 

Europe’s Rare Earth Quest

trade-wars
firms

Europe’s heavy reliance on Chinese rare earths leaves its automotive and renewables industries exposed — and millions of jobs at risk — unless it diversifies fast.

 

China Stands Firm: A New Chapter in the US Trade War

trade-wars

Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on $438 billion of Chinese imports and Beijing’s vow to ‘fight to the end’ push the US-China trade war into a new, more dangerous phase.

 

Chips, Curbs & Tariffs

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firms

China’s tightened rare-earth export controls and Washington’s retaliatory tariffs are exposing how exposed chipmakers and defence supply chains are to a single supplier.

 

Trade wars are culture wars

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A 40% US tariff on Brazil cut its exports to America by nearly 19% in a month, wiping out mining shipments and hitting agriculture and steel hardest.

 

Tariff Turbulence: How Trump’s Threats Are Rocking the UK Trade Deal

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Tariff threats are destabilising UK-US trade even after their deal, hitting UK autos and pharma exports and pushing Britain to look beyond the US for trade partners.

 

Trump’s Timber Tariffs: A Move that will Backfire Down the Supply Chains

trade-wars

New tariffs on softwood lumber and wood products aimed at Canada are likely to raise US lumber prices 15-20% and worsen housing affordability rather than help domestic producers.

 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 250

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The tariff on wood and furniture has been announced today, with the executive order published at the White House website.

 

Malaysia and the US: A Trade Deal on the Horizon Before Trump’s ASEAN Visit

trade-wars

Malaysia and the US race to close a tariff deal on palm oil and electronics ahead of Trump’s Kuala Lumpur visit — a possible template for wider Southeast Asian trade deals.

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 214

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After Lutnick was challenged to present any evidence of the new “trade deals” with countries like Vietnam, Korea,Japan, and EU White House has finally published a joint statement on US - EU Framework on and Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced Trade.

 

Trade policy Trump 2.0 and US trade

trade-wars

Tariff uncertainty widened, rather than narrowed, the US trade deficit in early 2025, as stockpiling of gold, semiconductors, and pharmaceutical inputs inflated imports.

 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 199

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While most countries digest new tariffs, imposed on them by Trump, there are news obout new tariffs upcoming.

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 194

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Finally, just several hours before the deadline on August 1, the White House has published new executive order, modifying the Executive Order 14257 of April 2, 2025, which set country-specific rates for imports to US, clearly violating WTO MFN rules and also…

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 193

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Trump announced a “trade deal” Korea with US, which set US tariffs for Korean imports at 15%. As with other deals, Korea had to declare some magik numbers - several hundred billion USD here and there of investment in US.

 

US tariff weaponization

trade-wars

Tariffs are being used for more than trade: as leverage for foreign investment pledges, and as a geopolitical lever tying trading partners’ Russia ties to their tariff rates.

 

Tramp 2.0 Trade war

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The US-EU deal struck in July 2025 sets 15% tariffs on European exporters in exchange for large EU commitments to buy US energy and defence equipment and invest in the US.

 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 191

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Reaction of businesses in the both parts of the Atlantics to the EU-US trade agreement was underwhelming - very weak positive in the US and quite strong negative in the EU stock market movement, critisizm of the deal in Germany and Franz, Sholz said it is…

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 189

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Trump travelled to Scotland to play golf in his 2 resorts, Trump Turnberry and Trump Aberdeen. He also met with Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, to discuss the ongoing trade tensions between the US and the EU.

 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 176

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Trump finally threatened Russia and all countries that support Russia in the war against Ukraine with tariffs.

 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 175

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trump-trade-war-diary

Over the last month and a half, there were not many issues in the trade policy diary, until the last week, when the 90-day moratorium on reciprocal tariffs expired.

 

UK-US deal? Not so fast!

brexit
trade-wars

The UK is squeezed from both sides: Trump tariffs are hitting US-bound exports even after the Economic Prosperity Deal, while Brexit-era TCA friction keeps taxing trade with the EU.

 

Trump Trade War Diary — June 4, 2025

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  • UK-origin metal remains at 25 % under the provisional U-S/UK “Atlantic Metals Accord” until 9 July 2025; no other country has an arrangement.

Trump Trade War Diary — June 2, 2025

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“The bad news is that China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US. So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!” Trump wrote. Later in the Oval Office, he hinted he planned to speak with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

Trump Trade War Diary — May 31, 2025

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  • Tariff Increase: 50% on imported steel and aluminum (up from 25%). - Effective Date: June 4, 2025. - Platform: Announced via Truth Social. - Rationale: Protect U.S.
 

Trump Trade War Diary — May 29, 2025

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In an unexpected turn of events, the US Court of Int’l Trade declares Trump Liberation Day tariffs illegal.

Trump Trade War Diary — May 25, 2025

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Urusula van der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, and DJ Trump, the President of the United States, had a phone call on May 25, 2025, to discuss the recent escalation of tariffs between the US and the EU.

Trump Trade War Diary — May 22, 2025

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Trump suddenly announces escalation of tariffs against EU to 50% on all imports starting June 1, 2025. Not only it is a surprise, but it is also a significant increase from the previous 10% tariffs.

Trump Trade War Diary — May 12, 2025

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The US and China have agreed to a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, with the exception of China.

 

Trump Trade War Diary — May 8, 2025

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US and UK announced the first trade deal under the new Reciprocal Tariff Policy.

 

Trump Trade War Diary — Days 101–112

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After active trade policy actions in the first half of April, the second half of the month was relatively quiet. The most significant event was the announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most countries, which was not extended to China.

 

Trump Trade War Diary — April 29, 2025

trade-wars
trump-trade-war-diary

The April 29, 2025 proclamation titled “Amendments to Adjusting Imports of Automobiles and Automobile Parts Into the United States” introduces several modifications to the earlier March 26, 2025 proclamation (Proclamation 10908), which imposed a 25% tariff on…

 

Trump Trade War Diary — April 17, 2025

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The White House launched Restoring America’s maritime dominance initiative with a publication at the White House website. The initiative aims at strenghening the US commercial shipbuilding capacity and maritime workforce.

 

Impact assessment of Trump tariffs and China retaliation

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Modelling the long-run hit from Trump-era tariffs and Chinese retaliation: both economies lose roughly 1.5% of GDP per capita, but the US gets inflation and China gets deflation.

 

Trump Trade War Diary — Days 81–100

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Recent developments in the trade relationship between the United States and China concerning tariffs within the last 10 days have been marked by continued tension, particularly with the US maintaining and escalating tariff pressure on China while adopting a…

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 80

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After bond market showed sell-off of US bonds and interest rates spiked, after China showed no sign of surrender, and after EU agreed the first wave of retaliatory tariffs, D. Trump threw a white flag and cancelled his “reciprocal” tariffs.

 

US trade war retreat: The art of the deal or utter incompetence?

trade-wars

A 104% tariff on China wiped $6.2 trillion off the S&P 500 in a day — then Trump partially retreated, leaving the US with its highest average tariff rate in 60 years.

 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 79

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Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff plan has officially gone into effect, marking a significant shift in global trade policy.

 

US trade deficit and Trump uncertainty

trade-wars

Tariffs can’t fix the US trade deficit because they ignore the saving-investment identity behind it — and early 2025 data already shows the policy backfiring.

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 74

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Taking a short pause, China announced a reciprocal 34% tariff on all US imports, effective April 10. The move is a direct response to Trump’s recent tariff hike and is expected to escalate trade tensions further.

 

Tariff Liberation Day

trade-wars

Trump’s new ‘reciprocal tariff’ executive order marks the collapse of the post-WWII trade order, replacing product-level tariffs with blunt, chaos-inducing country-level rates.

 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 72

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trump-trade-war-diary

Trump announces his “reciprocal tariffs” on all countries, which will go in two stages. Starting from tomorrow, there is a base 10% tariff on all imports from all countries, but there is a list of countries that will get higher tariffs.

 

Trump Trade War 2.0

trade-wars

Steel and aluminium tariffs trigger a two-phase EU retaliation package, then a threatened 200% tariff on French wine catches even Trump’s own Treasury Secretary off-guard.

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 52

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Furious with the EU response, Trump tweeted that he will impose 200% tariffs on French wine and other alcohol from EU. The number iteslf raised several eyebrows, as it is not clear how he came up with it.

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 51

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Trump’s 25% tariffs on Steel and Aluminium against all trading partners came into effect.

 

Trump 2.0 Trade policy diary

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Ontario surcharges US electricity exports; Trump retaliates with more steel and aluminium tariffs on Canada, testing the theory that trade barriers breed conflict.

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 50

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trump-trade-war-diary

Ontario introduced 25% surcharge on electricity it exports to US. This act was the retaliatory measure against US tariffs on Canada. In 2024, US imported electricity worth 2.3 bln USD.

 

Trump 2.0 tariffs. Part III

trade-wars

A chaotic four days: tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico trigger swift retaliation, then a stock-market slide forces a partial climbdown within days.

 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 46

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Duties imposed to address the flow of illicit drugs across our borders are now: - 25% tariffs on goods that do not satisfy U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) rules of origin.

 

Trump tariffs 2.0 Part II

trade-wars

Two weeks of tariff whiplash: North American duties imposed then rolled back, followed by new steel, aluminium, and reciprocal-tariff measures.

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 45

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Scared by the stock market reaction to the tariffs, Trump is backpedalling sending his economic policy guy, Howard Lutnick to calm the markets down.

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 44

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Bizarrly, Trump keeps claiming that the tariffs on Canada are due to fentanyl, which is a very weak argument. The tariffs are clearly to protect US industry and to force firms to move their production to the US.

 

Trump trade policy 2.0

trade-wars

A chronicle of the administration’s early trade moves since January 21 — investigations before sweeping tariffs, mixed signals on China, and internal debate over a universal tariff.

 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 43

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US tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada are now active. Canada and China already announced their retaliatory measures, and Mexico is expected to follow suit with announcement by the end of the week.

 

Trump tariffs 2.0 Update

trade-wars

New 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico plus 20% on China take effect, modelled to push the US itself into recession alongside its neighbours.

 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 42

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On the 2nd March 2025, Trump decidedly moved forward with his vision on the new world order with America shutting down its links to the outside world.

 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 39

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  • Trump indicated he is working on a UK trade deal that could exempt Britain from tariffs - Called Starmer a “tough negotiator” who is trying to persuade him against imposing tariffs on Britain - Trump’s UK comments came after threatening 25% tariffs on EU…

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 38

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  • Implement tariffs on Mexico and Canada starting March 4 (reversing a previous delay) - Add an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports (on top of existing 10% tariffs) starting March 4 - Proceed with planned “reciprocal” tariffs affecting various countries…
 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 37

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Today, President Trump held his first cabinet meeting of his second term, featuring notable attendees including Elon Musk.

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 24

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Trump issued a new executive order on reciprocal tariffs against other countries, which includes VAT and Non-tariff measures. The order is available here. In a tweet that preceeded the order he explained that VAT in particular is unfair against US companies.

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 21

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Donald Trump said he would on Monday impose 25 per cent tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports, expanding his trade conflicts to the metals sector in a new burst of protectionism from Washington.

 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 20

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Over the last 5 days, there were no significant changes in Trump stance on trade policy. However, there were some interesting development in China retaliatory measures against the US and Trump reaction to it.

 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 15

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China slaps 15% tariffs on US coal and LNG moments after Trump’s new tariffs come into effect.

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 14

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In a miracluous turn of events, Trump announced that he is lifting tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The tariffs were supposed to be effective from February 4, but Trump changed his mind.

 

Trump tariffs v2.0 Update

trade-wars

The trade war is on: Canada gets a preferential 10% rate on energy given US reliance on Canadian crude, while Mexico still faces the full 25%.

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 12

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The US is set to implement steep tariffs on its three largest trading partners—Canada, Mexico, and China—beginning February 1. Under President Trump’s directive, Canada and Mexico will face a 25% tariff, while China will be subject to a 10% levy.

 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 11

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The proposed tariffs could have significant ripple effects throughout the North American economy.

 

Trump’s Trade War 2.0

trade-wars

Trump’s new 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China, modelled to cut Mexican and Canadian exports by up to a quarter, with oil imports the key exposure.

 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 7

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  • Initial tariff would start at 2.5% and increase by 2.5% monthly - Could eventually reach 20% - Gradual approach aims to give businesses time to adjust and allow for negotiations - Trump wants “much bigger” tariffs than 2.5% - Trump threatened tariffs on…

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 6

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Today Trump unexpectedly announced 25% tariffs on Colombia for refusing to lend 2 airplains with Colombina nationals, who were extradicted from the US.

 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 2

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Trump surprised everyone with much softer stance against China. Today he announced that he considers a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, but only if Beijing does not agree a deal on TikTok. He also linked the tariff to fetanyl exports from China.

 

Trump Trade War Diary — Day 1

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trump-trade-war-diary

No specifics so far on anticipated tariff hikes, but all options on the table.

 

How political alliances shape trade and welfare in Europe

trade-wars
political-economy

Research with Karen Jackson finds NATO membership significantly boosts exports, and that expansion to Finland, Sweden, and Ukraine would benefit EU economies.

 

The Future of Electric Vehicles and Technology Leadership

firms
trade-wars

How China’s rise to 30% of global EV exports has triggered US and EU tariffs, and what that means for the industry as growth slows.

 

FAQ: Political Alliances and Trade: Europe in a Polarized World

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political-economy

A Q&A on new research showing NATO membership boosts bilateral trade by 24-63%, and what alliance expansion or collapse would mean for Europe.

 

Military alliances and trade: The Economic Case for NATO Expansion

trade-wars
nato

Research with Karen Jackson showing NATO expansion brings measurable trade and welfare gains for Europe, while a US withdrawal or a stronger Shanghai Cooperation Organisation would not.

 

Friend-shoring: what Biden wants to achieve by trading with allies rather than rivals

trade-wars

Mexico and Canada have overtaken China as America’s top trading partners as Biden’s friend-shoring strategy reshapes US trade — but the long-run payoff is uncertain.

 

China’s Trade Dynamics in 2021-2023

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china

China’s exports peaked in 2022 before falling in 2023, with trade reorienting away from the US and Taiwan and toward Russia and Brazil.

 

Political alliances and trade: Europe in a polarized world

trade-wars
political-economy
gravity
European Journal of Political Economy, 2024. With Karen Jackson.
Show abstract This study investigates how political alliances influence trade and welfare in Europe and major global economies amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Using a panel data approach, we assess the impact of military alliances on trade through structural gravity and staggered difference-in-differences methods, then simulate the effects of alliance strengthening or disintegration. NATO enlargement brings economic benefits for Europe, while a US withdrawal from NATO or a deepening Shanghai Cooperation Organisation would produce significant negative trade and welfare effects.
 

Transforming East Asia: Regional Integration in a Trade War Era

trade-wars
Open Economies Review, 2023. With Karen Jackson.
Show abstract We evaluate the trade and welfare implications of deeper East Asian integration — via a China-Japan-Korea free trade agreement — against the backdrop of continuing US-China trade tensions, using a structural gravity approach. For China, the FTA can offset continued trade tensions with the US; tariff reductions deliver larger welfare gains than reductions in non-tariff barriers, and a deeper agreement is more welfare-enhancing for all members. East Asian integration looks more attractive to its members in light of US tensions, not less.
 

Non-tariff measures and productivity of Ukrainian food-processing firms

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trade-wars
firms
agrifood
non-tariff-measures
firm-level
Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2022. With Volodymyr Vakhitov, Veronika Movchan, and Mariia Panga.
Show abstract Using detailed data on veterinary, ecological, sanitary, phytosanitary, and mandatory certification measures, we study how non-tariff measures affect firm productivity in Ukraine’s food-processing industry through forward and backward linkages, comparing quantity- and revenue-based measures of total factor productivity. Non-tariff measures on intermediate inputs reduce quantity-based productivity, and firms that rely heavily on imported inputs see the biggest long-run productivity losses when input requirements tighten; revenue-based effects are muted because firms adjust prices and quality instead.
 

Belt and road: The China dream?

trade-wars
China Economic Review, 2021. With Karen Jackson.
Show abstract Using a general equilibrium structural gravity model with mobile capital flows, we assess how the Belt and Road Initiative’s effects on trade costs and investment affect trade and consumer welfare in China, the EU, and the rest of the world. A 15% reduction in China-EU transport costs would raise representative-consumer welfare by 1.27% in China and 0.5% in the EU; combining the initiative with a deep EU-China free trade agreement would raise welfare by 4.37% and 1.99% respectively — substantial gains concentrated in the two blocs directly involved.
 

An examination of EU trade disintegration scenarios

brexit
trade-wars
The World Economy, 2021. With Karen Jackson.
Show abstract Using a structural gravity approach, we examine the welfare implications of scenarios in which the EU itself partially disintegrates, rather than just the UK leaving it. The remaining EU countries stand to lose considerably more from EU disintegration than they did from a disorderly Brexit. Some neighbouring high- and middle-income countries — Bosnia and Herzegovina and Norway among them — would actually benefit under certain disintegration scenarios, gaining trade competitiveness relative to the weakened EU bloc.
 

Popular Support For Trade Agreements And Partner Country Characteristics

consultancy
trade-wars
Economic Inquiry, 2021. With Tom Coupé.
Show abstract Using quasi-experimental survey data collected immediately before and after the November 2016 US presidential election, we test how the election of Donald Trump affected Europeans’ willingness to sign a trade and investment agreement with the United States. The election outcome produced an immediate, sizeable negative shift in Europeans’ image of the United States, but no corresponding drop in their willingness to sign a trade agreement — popular support for a deal proved more durable than opinion of the partner country itself.
 

Trade Wars: Are Good and Easy to Win?

trade-wars
SSRN Working Paper, 2018. With Karen Jackson.
Show abstract Taking its title from a well-known 2018 tweet, this paper uses a structural gravity approach to evaluate the welfare implications of US protectionist trade policy under three retaliatory scenarios from the EU and China. The impact on the US is negative under every scenario, ranging from 0.25% to 1.4% of GDP, with smaller US losses precisely when the EU and China do not retaliate — meaning it is a dominant strategy for both the EU and China to hold their tariffs against US goods at existing levels rather than de-escalate.
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