Beyond security: The trade implications of joining NATO
trade-wars
SSRN Working Paper / BOFIT Discussion Paper, 2026. With Karen Jackson.
Combining structural gravity methods with a staggered difference-in-differences design, we identify the causal effect of NATO membership on bilateral trade flows, separating it from the effect of a generic military alliance. NATO accession raises exports, with benefits that unfold gradually and intensify over time, coming through several channels: protecting and securing trade routes, lowering uncertainty and boosting cross-member investment, direct trade in military and military-related goods, and logistical support for military activity.
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Combining structural gravity methods with a staggered difference-in-differences design, we identify the causal effect of NATO membership on bilateral trade flows, separating it from the effect of a generic military alliance. NATO accession raises exports, with benefits that unfold gradually and intensify over time, coming through several channels: protecting and securing trade routes, lowering uncertainty and boosting cross-member investment, direct trade in military and military-related goods, and logistical support for military activity.
Combining structural gravity methods with a staggered difference-in-differences design, we identify the causal effect of NATO membership on bilateral trade flows, separating it from the effect of a generic military alliance. NATO accession raises exports, with benefits that unfold gradually and intensify over time, coming through several channels: protecting and securing trade routes, lowering uncertainty and boosting cross-member investment, direct trade in military and military-related goods, and logistical support for military activity.
Working paper: SSRN Working Paper / BOFIT Discussion Paper, 2026. With Karen Jackson.