How did Brexit affect UK trade?
brexit
Contemporary Social Science, 2023. With Jun Du and Emine Beyza Satoglu.
Using COMTRADE data from 2019 to 2022Q1 and synthetic difference-in-differences, we build a counterfactual UK that did not experience the Trade and Cooperation Agreement to assess its effect on UK trade. The negative, large, and statistically significant impact on UK exports persisted throughout the period, with the gap between actual and synthetic UK exports widening to 26% on average. The TCA also caused a significant contraction in the variety of goods the UK exports to the EU.
Show abstract
Using COMTRADE data from 2019 to 2022Q1 and synthetic difference-in-differences, we build a counterfactual UK that did not experience the Trade and Cooperation Agreement to assess its effect on UK trade. The negative, large, and statistically significant impact on UK exports persisted throughout the period, with the gap between actual and synthetic UK exports widening to 26% on average. The TCA also caused a significant contraction in the variety of goods the UK exports to the EU.
A plain-language stocktake of the UK trade evidence two years after the Trade and Cooperation Agreement took effect, aimed at a policy and social-science audience rather than a specialist trade-economics one. We summarise what the firm- and product-level data show about goods versus services, large firms versus small ones, and which sectors adjusted fastest.
Published in: Contemporary Social Science, 18(2), 266–283