Impact of a TB epidemic on worker and firm productivity: the regional perspective from Ukraine
ukraine
firms
Journal of Population Economics, 2026. With Olena Nizalova.
Using administrative records from Ukrainian regions between 2003–2009, we find that higher tuberculosis prevalence significantly reduced both worker wages and firm total factor productivity, while newly diagnosed cases were associated with higher wages and productivity. Geographic analysis reveals substantial spillover effects across neighbouring regions. A 10% reduction in TB prevalence is estimated to yield GDP gains of roughly 1.05% — substantially exceeding the 0.04% of GDP Ukraine spent on TB control that year, pointing to considerable underinvestment in disease mitigation.
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Using administrative records from Ukrainian regions between 2003–2009, we find that higher tuberculosis prevalence significantly reduced both worker wages and firm total factor productivity, while newly diagnosed cases were associated with higher wages and productivity. Geographic analysis reveals substantial spillover effects across neighbouring regions. A 10% reduction in TB prevalence is estimated to yield GDP gains of roughly 1.05% — substantially exceeding the 0.04% of GDP Ukraine spent on TB control that year, pointing to considerable underinvestment in disease mitigation.
Tuberculosis remains a significant regional health burden in Ukraine, with prevalence varying sharply across oblasts. We link regional TB incidence to worker- and firm-level productivity outcomes using administrative records from 2003–2009, finding that higher disease prevalence reduced both worker wages and firm total factor productivity, with substantial spillover effects across neighbouring regions. A 10% reduction in prevalence is estimated to raise GDP by roughly 1.05% — far exceeding the 0.04% of GDP spent on TB control that year, evidence with direct relevance to postwar health and labour policy.
Published in: Journal of Population Economics, 39, article 63 (2026)