The Law of Unintended Consequences in Soccer: Impact of Three-Point-A-Win Rule on Strategies and Outcomes
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SSRN Working Paper, 2010.
A side project in applied econometrics: using a large sample of European league matches from 1990–1997, I test whether switching from two to three points for a win — intended to reward attacking play — actually changed team strategies and match outcomes. The rule change altered incentives in ways that are not obviously captured by simple before/after comparisons of goals scored, illustrating how well-intentioned rule changes can produce unanticipated strategic responses.
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A side project in applied econometrics: using a large sample of European league matches from 1990–1997, I test whether switching from two to three points for a win — intended to reward attacking play — actually changed team strategies and match outcomes. The rule change altered incentives in ways that are not obviously captured by simple before/after comparisons of goals scored, illustrating how well-intentioned rule changes can produce unanticipated strategic responses.
A side project in applied econometrics: using a large sample of European league matches from 1990–1997, I test whether switching from two to three points for a win — intended to reward attacking play — actually changed team strategies and match outcomes. The rule change altered incentives in ways that are not obviously captured by simple before/after comparisons of goals scored, illustrating how well-intentioned rule changes can produce unanticipated strategic responses.
Working paper: SSRN Working Paper, 2010.