Brexit and the Services Trade—A Longitudinal Analysis
brexit
firms
services-trade
Journal of Service Research, 2024. With Jun Du.
Using the OECD-WTO Balanced Trade in Services dataset and a synthetic difference-in-differences design, we estimate the impact of Brexit uncertainty on UK services trade from 2016 to 2019. UK services exports fell short of a synthetic no-Brexit counterfactual by an average of US$23.7bn (£18.5bn) a year — a 5.65% reduction — with substantial variation across sectors and destinations. Bilateral exports fell by 8.5% on average; large markets such as Germany and the US were less affected than smaller ones, UK exports to the EU as a whole declined by 6.21%, while, strikingly, exports to Ireland expanded by 21.4%.
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Using the OECD-WTO Balanced Trade in Services dataset and a synthetic difference-in-differences design, we estimate the impact of Brexit uncertainty on UK services trade from 2016 to 2019. UK services exports fell short of a synthetic no-Brexit counterfactual by an average of US$23.7bn (£18.5bn) a year — a 5.65% reduction — with substantial variation across sectors and destinations. Bilateral exports fell by 8.5% on average; large markets such as Germany and the US were less affected than smaller ones, UK exports to the EU as a whole declined by 6.21%, while, strikingly, exports to Ireland expanded by 21.4%.
Using the OECD-WTO Balanced Trade in Services dataset and a synthetic difference-in-differences design, we estimate the impact of Brexit uncertainty on UK services trade from 2016 to 2019. UK services exports fell short of a synthetic no-Brexit counterfactual by an average of US$23.7bn (£18.5bn) a year — a 5.65% reduction — with substantial variation across sectors and destinations. Bilateral exports fell by 8.5% on average; large markets such as Germany and the US were less affected than smaller ones, UK exports to the EU as a whole declined by 6.21%, while, strikingly, exports to Ireland expanded by 21.4%.
Published in: Journal of Service Research, 2024. With Jun Du.