Oleksandr Shepotylo https://shepotylo.com/brexit/ What leaving the EU actually did to British trade — measured, not argued. https://shepotylo.com/../images/themes/brexit.jpg Oleksandr Shepotylo https://shepotylo.com/brexit/ quarto-1.10.18 Sat, 01 Mar 2025 00:00:00 GMT How did the Brexit uncertainty impact services exports of UK firms? https://shepotylo.com/research/papers/brexit-services-exports.html Brexit-related uncertainty had a measurable, negative effect on UK firms’ services exports — distinct from, and in some respects larger than, the effect of the tariff and non-tariff barriers that eventually took effect. Using firm-level export data and a synthetic difference-in-differences design, we isolate the uncertainty channel from the trade-policy channel by comparing UK firms to a synthetic control built from firms in countries that faced no comparable shock.

Published in: Journal of International Business Policy, 8(1), 80–104

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]]> brexit firms services-trade firm-level https://shepotylo.com/research/papers/brexit-services-exports.html Sat, 01 Mar 2025 00:00:00 GMT How did Brexit affect UK trade? https://shepotylo.com/research/papers/how-did-brexit-affect-uk-trade.html A plain-language stocktake of the UK trade evidence two years after the Trade and Cooperation Agreement took effect, aimed at a policy and social-science audience rather than a specialist trade-economics one. We summarise what the firm- and product-level data show about goods versus services, large firms versus small ones, and which sectors adjusted fastest.

Published in: Contemporary Social Science, 18(2), 266–283

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]]> brexit https://shepotylo.com/research/papers/how-did-brexit-affect-uk-trade.html Sun, 01 Jan 2023 00:00:00 GMT Post-Brexit trade survival: Looking beyond the European Union https://shepotylo.com/research/papers/post-brexit-trade-survival.html Before the UK left the EU, we modelled how UK trade relationships with non-EU partners were likely to evolve once preferential access to the single market ended — asking whether new or renegotiated third-country agreements could plausibly offset the loss. The structural gravity estimates from this paper became a reference point for subsequent post-Brexit impact assessments, including several used in policy submissions.

Published in: Economic Modelling, 73(C), 317–328

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]]> brexit consultancy gravity https://shepotylo.com/research/papers/post-brexit-trade-survival.html Mon, 01 Jan 2018 00:00:00 GMT